Case StudiesProvincial Pandemic Modelling
4.4M - Population served by the models.
Challenge
A province needed to decide when to restrict and when to reopen - for 4.4 million people - on evidence that changed weekly. Every existing model answered a research question, not a decision question.
What we built
A multi-model ensemble - SIR/SEIR compartmental models, seasonal ARIMA for short-horizon forecasting, continuous reproduction number estimation, and Monte Carlo ensembles that turned parameter uncertainty into actionable scenario bands. Scored weekly against observed data. Re-fit as variants and behaviour changed. Results reported to the World Health Organization.
The model
Outcome
Scenarios used in provincial response planning at head-of-government level.
Client details and delivery specifics are confidential. References available on request.
Case studies
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